Expectations are for about 160K on jobs, which happens to be last months number. My model says 135K, but I think it’s low–some funny stuff going on with UI claims. GS researchers note that: “Payroll growth should be held back by a strike at Verizon Communications, which BLS figures suggest idled 35,100 workers during the survey period” so add that to the mix.
This is the last jobs report before the Fed’s mid-June meeting, so if the payroll number does come in well under the 200K trend and wage growth remains relatively tame, I’d expect that to dampen the craze to raise in June, but we’ll see. I know what Chair Yellen means when she says she’s data driven, i.e., she means what she says. For some of the more hawkish folks over there, one worries it’s “yeah, yeah, we’re data driven. Now, let’s raise the rate.”