There’s no education in the third kick of a mule.

November 7th, 2016 at 10:51 am

Every four years at this time, someone asks me, “Will the influence of the Hispanic vote on the election force Republicans to the table on immigration reform?”

In 2008, I said, “yes.” I was wrong.

In 2012, I said, “yes.” I was wrong.

Today, I said “no.” I hope that, once again, I’m wrong.

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4 comments in reply to "There’s no education in the third kick of a mule."

  1. Larry Signor says:

    It doesn’t seem like Republicans are receptive of any immigration reform that doesn’t include an impenetrable wall. Not exactly the poster children for malleability.

  2. Robert Salzberg says:

    Sane moderate Republicans, yes. But after the cray of this election, no sane moderate Republican is going to fight for immigration reform for fear of being primaried out of office.

  3. Smith says:

    Calling the immigration bills backed by Democrats “immigration reform” is like calling tax bills supported by Republicans “tax reform”. Do people even know what’s in the bill? The main features are
    1) Increased immigration
    2) Greatly expanded employment based immigration and cuts to family based immigration
    3) New emphasis on high skills immigration ( more than doubled )
    4) A legal path for illegal immigrants, subject to continuous employment or earnings requirements
    5) End of the diversity lottery
    6) Removal of country quotas which especially affect China and India vs the rest of the world

    The grand bargain is Republicans get cheap labor, especially high skills, and counter Democrats play for even substantial conservative elements of immigrant voters, while Democrats get cheap labor and extra votes from legal immigrants who identify with the cause (because there is a mandated 13 year waiting period for those who entered illegally, no new votes won near term for anyone)

    The driving force is business being able to exploit labor by requiring sponsorship, the end of business being threatened from legal sanctions for employing illegal immigrants, greater globalization of the labor pool, extending labor effects further in high skills labor market.

    An intelligent alternative to the racist appeals of some Republicans, or hidden corporate agenda of Democrats and Republicans supporting a new bill would be

    1) Neither expanded nor contracted levels of immigration, especially liberal considering foreign born population is near a record high, and economy is still slack
    2) Effective triggers during recessions to lower levels
    3) The end of employer sponsorship requirements and other features which create a two tier labor market and depress all wages
    4) Retention of attributes which allow a diverse inflow of immigrants representing all cultures.
    5) No targeting of high skills job markets which ends up being STEM (sorry Facebook, Google, IBM, Microsoft, Amazon, your profits are high enough already), an otherwise growing opportunity for future workers here.
    6) Citizenship for those here illegally but some incentive to lower exploitation, perhaps some test of American history, civics, English, once passed frees them more quickly than enduring 13 years as second class nont-citizens.

    Those Democrats who let the economy languish while attending to the needs of the world and those in America who are the least fortunate, whatever their motivations, are responsible for the rise of Trump.

    I support immigration, but not the Labor Exploitation Bill Democrats and Republicans try to sell as reform.

  4. Kevin Rica says:

    Lucky I got my roof done last month. Five guys up there for one day who did a good job in spite of the fact that they barely spoke enough English to ask for an extension cord.

    If Trump has his way, my guess is that those guys will be gone soon and legal replacements would probably cost $100 day extra. If that is passed along, the costs doing my roof next year would go through the roof (sorry), adding $500 on top of the $7700 that I paid. FWIW, the guy who sold me the roof was very Anglo and had a big American flag logo on the contract.