Over at the WaPo.
If Trump chooses this path — and I’m not even getting into deportations or the Supreme Court — it will not only represent the reckless application of presidential power. It will show many of his supporters that his populism was merely for the campaign. His actual policies would help rich families like his own far more than the displaced factory workers who bought the candidate’s economic message.
Somehow Ronald Reagan not only survived the worst recession since the Great Depression but actually thrived by bringing down inflation to 3% (50% higher than Yellen’s target or ceiling) and unemployment still around 7% when running for reelection. He cut taxes for the rich, and drove up the deficit. Explain again how this is a recipe for failure? Likewise the George Bush set the bar so low and the Obama recovery was so weak and hamstrung (2.1% per year) that barring a recession or price shock ( a Mideast war impacting world oil supplies), it’s hard to see a road to failure.
Repealing Obamacare is a serious problem, but Republicans can simply allow Democrats to block the repeal and blame them for any compromise that retains coverage to avoid angering voters.
It’s the same way Democrats allow Republican’s to pass tax cuts and then blame Republicans for it, when they secretly don’t care, or benefit personally from the cuts, as do their important donors. Hence 80% of Bush tax cuts in place.
Trumps biggest issue is the end of the credit cycle. The + side this time it won’t be overly destructive systematically. The bad side, it is still a credit contraction. Auto loan markets will be the main hub this time. They have driven up sales faster with easy discounts, but they are rapidly running out of clients. Which is requiring more debt to wheel in new clients. That isn’t going to end well. The amount of Japanese auto connection is large this cycle, very large. I suspect one big auto manufacture may need a bailout by 2020 at the latest by the Japanese government.
Secondly, by this time next year in 2017, the cycle will have matured to it potential. At that point, you are on the countdown to the next recession. There is nothing that can be done unless other credit areas start overheating again, yeah, lets don’t go there.
Pink Donald: The Wall (afraid of swarthy skins)
Situation: 12 million illegal immigrants — maybe 2/3 overworked/underpaid Mexicans.
Just think: 1 out of 40 persons among us is an overworked/underpaid Mexican — and it’s all our fault for not spending tens or hundreds of billions of dollars building a Maginot Line barrier to keep them out. Just imagine: we still have time to build the laughing stock of the world. Can’t think of the link but: according to US and Mexican authorities, Mexican emigration to US steadily down for 10 years — one source said by three; the other by ten.
Hundreds of years from now archeologists will dig up the ruins of American civilization and discover that it was those 8 million underpaid/overworked Mexicans who brought everything down.